Economy & Rates

Key macroeconomic indicators, three economic health gauges, GBM Economy Outlook, and Recession Risk Gauge — updated daily.

Last updated: June 09, 2026 at 04:01 AM
Economic Health Gauges
Economy Health?The underlying strength of the US economy. Jobs, inflation, Fed policy, housing and growth all rolled into one.
Updated June 09, 2026 at 04:01 AM
Negative Positive Neutral 43 /100
Moderately Negative
Consumer Health?How financially stressed is the average American? Credit costs, mortgage rates, sentiment and employment.
Updated June 09, 2026 at 04:01 AM
Negative Positive Neutral 32 /100
Moderately Negative
Inflation Pressure?How hot is inflation running? Oil, gold, copper, CPI and the dollar all feed into this gauge.
Updated June 09, 2026 at 04:01 AM
High Pressure Low Pressure Neutral 32 /100
Elevated — Monitor Closely
📊 GBM ECONOMY OUTLOOK ?GBM's economic outlook model estimating the probability of expansion or contraction based on broad market and economic conditions. Updated weekly.
Updated: June 07, 2026
6-MONTH OUTLOOK
77 Expansion Expected Contraction Expansion
3-MONTH OUTLOOK
77
/100
Expansion Expected
Moderate confidence
6-MONTH OUTLOOK
77
/100
Expansion Expected
Low-Moderate confidence
12-MONTH OUTLOOK
77
/100
Expansion Expected
Low confidence
📊 Accuracy tracking started — check back in 3 months for model performance data
⚠️ GBM RECESSION RISK ?GBM's model estimating the probability of a significant market or economic downturn. Updated weekly.
Updated: June 07, 2026
34LOW RISKLow RiskSevere
LOW RISK
Historical data suggests approximately a 20% probability of a significant market or economic downturn within 12 months — consistent with long-run base rates. No meaningful elevated risk detected.
Federal Reserve
Fed Funds Rate?Rate set by the Fed. Controls all borrowing costs.
3.63%
10-Year Treasury?Benchmark for mortgages and long-term borrowing.
4.55%
2-Year Treasury?Tracks Fed policy expectations closely.
3.63%
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)?Negative = inverted = recession warning.
0.92%
30-Year Mortgage?Most common US home loan rate.
6.48%
15-Year Mortgage?Shorter term, lower rate, higher payment.
5.79%
Growth & Employment
GDP?Total US economic output.
$31.8T
Unemployment Rate?Below 4% = full employment.
4.3%
Consumer Sentiment?University of Michigan survey. Higher = more spending expected.
49.8
Housing Starts?New residential construction starts.
1.47M/yr
Existing Home Sales?Annual rate of existing home sales.
4.02M/yr
Median Home Price?Median US existing home sale price.
$403,200
Inflation
CPI (YoY)?Consumer Price Index year-over-year. Fed targets 2%.
3.78%
Core CPI (YoY)?CPI excluding food and energy. Fed watches this most closely.
2.74%
Gold Price?Safe haven. Rising gold = inflation fears.
$4,349.90
Oil Price (WTI)?Higher oil raises costs across the economy.
$89.71
Silver Price?Industrial and precious metal.
$68.50
Natural Gas?Affects home heating and electricity costs.
$3.18
Consumer Rates
Auto Loan (48mo)?Average rate on 48-month new car loan.
7.36%
Credit Card APR?$5K balance at 21% = $1,050/year in interest.
21.00%
30yr Mortgage?30-year fixed mortgage rate.
6.48%
15yr Mortgage?15-year fixed mortgage rate.
5.79%
National Debt?Total US federal government debt.
$38.5T
Fed Funds Rate?Current Federal Reserve benchmark rate.
3.63%

Economy & Rates — US Economic Indicators

Monitor the US economy with real-time data sourced directly from the Federal Reserve (FRED). Three gauges measure Economy Health, Consumer Health, and Inflation Pressure. The GBM Economy Outlook model scores 3, 6, and 12-month economic conditions across 16 signals — outputting forecasts from Contraction Risk through Expansion. The Recession Risk Gauge monitors early warning indicators across six signal categories and updates every Sunday.

Key indicators include GDP, unemployment, CPI, Core CPI, Federal Funds Rate, Treasury yields, mortgage rates, consumer sentiment, housing data, and more — all sourced from FRED and updated automatically every morning.